Buy the winter clothes in August

Two boring facts decide the timing. Winter stock lands in August and September, and the middle sizes, 98 to 122, sell through first; by late October the rack holds size 86 and size 140. And the previous winter's colors are discounted at exactly the moment the new ones arrive. August is when the choice is widest and the price is lowest at the same time.

The mistake is natural: buying the suit that fits in the store in August. But the suit is worn from the first frost to April, and the child inside it grows the whole time. The size to buy is the one that fits in the middle of that stretch, around January. A suit that is roomy in September and snug in March beats one that is right in September and done by Christmas.

Count toward January

The arithmetic is short. Between two and four, children typically hold a clothing size for around eight months; younger than that, less. So if the current size has been on since spring, it will most likely be short before the suit is retired: buy the next one. If the child moved into the current size this summer, it can carry the winter. That is the whole decision, and knowing when the size changed is what decides it.

Boots are easier, because a foot can be measured. Measure in the evening, add 15 mm, and buy the boot that clears that number; the margin is the wool sock plus the winter's growth, the same rule the boot makers print themselves. At three, a foot typically moves a size in about five months, which is exactly what those millimeters absorb.

What does deserve waiting: hats, mittens and buffs are cheap, sized loosely and lost constantly, so buy them any Tuesday. The money decisions are the suit and the boots, and those are August work. One honest caveat: children grow in bursts, so keep the receipt and measure again when the cold actually arrives. A prediction buys the right size in advance; a measurement confirms it.